Net Zero by Speculation: Britain Is Approving Power Projects the Grid Cannot Deliver

There is a growing disconnect between the confident rhetoric surrounding Britain’s energy transition and the hard physical limits of the electricity system. Ministers speak of acceleration, reform, and clean power targets, yet across large parts of the country   nowhere more clearly than in Doncaster , projects are advancing long before the infrastructure exists to support them.
This is not merely a planning issue. It is the product of a policy framework that prioritises headline capacity over deliverability.
Under Ed Miliband and the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero, energy policy has become increasingly target-driven, while the National Energy System Operator is tasked with reconciling those ambitions with a network already operating close to its limits.
The consequence is predictable: a system that rewards speculation.
Developers are incentivised to secure land, secure consent, and secure queue positions, even where connection infrastructure is uncertain or many years away. In this environment, optionality has value regardless of whether electricity can actually be delivered.

Fenwick , approval as policy theatre
The recent approval of the Fenwick scheme illustrates the dynamic with uncomfortable clarity.
Fenwick has been presented as another step towards meeting national clean power targets, reinforcing the narrative of momentum. Yet within the regional network context, the approval sits uneasily with the reality of constrained export capacity and long reinforcement timelines across the South Yorkshire and Humber corridor.
National policy statements such as EN-1 emphasise the urgent need for new generating capacity, and this imperative increasingly dominates decision-making. But the interpretation of “need” has shifted from a balanced assessment of deliverability to a near-automatic presumption in favour of capacity, regardless of infrastructure readiness.
This risks turning the planning system into a mechanism for meeting numerical targets rather than ensuring coherent system development.
Approving generation without confirmed network capacity does not accelerate decarbonisation; it merely shifts costs and risks forward into the system.

Gate 2. reform without reinforcement
Connection reform, particularly the Gate 2 process, has been presented as a decisive intervention. In reality, it is an administrative fix to a physical constraint.
Gate 2 can reorder the queue, but it cannot build substations, install transformers, or expand transmission corridors. It reshuffles priority without increasing capacity.
The bottleneck remains unchanged — the physical network.

Tween Bridge , the illusion of deliverability
The proposed Tween Bridge solar scheme provides perhaps the clearest example of the current approach.
Promoted as a major renewable development, the scheme promises substantial generating capacity and large-scale battery storage. Yet its own documentation reveals a very different reality.
The project was originally advanced on the assumption of connection around 2029, but following connection reform decisions, it now faces a connection window extending into the early-to-mid 2030s.¹
The developer has acknowledged that a connection as late as 2035 could have “very significant implications” for the project’s viability.²
More fundamentally, the Grid Connection Statement confirms that the scheme depends on a new transmission substation whose location is not yet confirmed, meaning export cable routes remain undefined and subject to separate consent.³
Consent is therefore being pursued ahead of a confirmed physical connection — a sequencing that would once have been considered exceptional but is now becoming routine.

Doncaster , where the gap becomes visible
The Doncaster and Humber corridor is emerging as a national test case for the consequences of target-led policy.
Major reinforcement works extend well into the next decade, yet large-scale generation proposals continue to move forward. Communities are being asked to host developments today for electricity that may not flow for many years.
This is not driven by engineering necessity but by policy incentives.

The cost of political optics
Capacity announcements provide political cover. They signal progress, demonstrate ambition, and create the appearance of momentum.
But electricity systems do not operate on appearances. They operate on infrastructure.
When generation is approved ahead of network readiness, the system incurs higher constraint payments, increased balancing costs, and greater network investment requirements , costs ultimately borne by consumers.
The result is a system built out of sequence: overbuilt in constrained locations and under-reinforced where capacity is most needed.

The lesson ministers cannot ignore
What is unfolding in Doncaster is not an isolated anomaly but a warning.
Projects are advancing because targets require them, not because they are deliverable in the near term. Developers respond rationally to the incentives placed before them, while the risks are increasingly socialised across the system.
Gate 2 may tidy the queue, but it does not resolve the underlying constraint.
Until policymakers accept that infrastructure must lead generation rather than follow it, Britain will continue approving projects that look impressive on paper but struggle to deliver power in reality.
Targets may shape policy, but physics still governs the grid  and it always will.

Footnotes
Tween Bridge Solar Farm , Grid connection originally assumed for June 2029, subject to ongoing reform review. �
EN010148-000210-5.8

Grid Connection Statement.pdf None
RWE formal pause request letter confirming revised connection window of 2031–2035 and potential viability implications. �EN010148-000439-

Tween Bridge Solar Farm – Formal Pause Request Letter – 12th January 2026.pdf None
Grid Connection Statement confirming reliance on a new 400kV substation with location not yet confirmed and connection infrastructure subject to separate consent. �

Shane Oxer.   Campaigner for fairer and affordable energy